ZStat
ZStat Sign in Start free

Prediction, not explanation

Machine learning

Thirteen tasks, each fitted alongside the simpler method it claims to beat - and told plainly when the simpler one wins.

Machine learning in a thesis usually goes wrong in one of two ways: a model that scores brilliantly because a feature secretly contains the answer, or a headline accuracy that is worse than always guessing the commonest class. ZStat checks for both before it reports anything.

What you can do

Predict a category or a number, with the model chosen by comparison rather than fashion, and the honest cross-validated score reported instead of the best one seen.

What it refuses

  • A model built on a feature that encodes the outcome. It would score perfectly in your thesis and fail completely in use.
  • An accuracy figure without the majority-class rate beside it. If 85% of your cases are one class, 85% accuracy means the model learned nothing.
  • A forecast validated on a shuffled time series, which lets the model train on Wednesday to predict Tuesday.
When gradient boosting beats the neural network, ZStat says so and recommends the boosting. Most theses do not have the data volume that makes deep learning worth its complexity.

The other parts

Start free Browse all procedures Questions